But really selfish aa catching now with peak approaching and increasing spread is really bad. Because we all will eventually catch it, maybe even going to try to catch it with peak immunity is best personal choice. Because at peak immunity, while you can get infected, the chance of getting very sick is miniscule. If you want to be selfish, go ahead and go to that party. Do NOT count on peak vaccine, or peak natural immunity, to protect you from this. Get a large viral dose and it will penatrate that peak immunity. Įven if you were boosted 3 weeks ago, do not think you cannot get omicron if you go to a large unmasked indoor new years eve party with 100 people where likely multiple people are infected. There have been quite a few infections in people who have gotten recent boosters whose vaccine immunity is at peak. You imply that omicron can only infect after vaccine immunity has waned. If you had delta a month ago, will make it hard, but not impossible, for omicron. Instead delta seems to reduce both ( though probably not by immunity avoidance and just being overall better) and omicron which will reduce vaccine more. So expectation was we would see a lot of variants with non spike mutations penetrating natural immunity only. And easier to mutate other less essential parts which would weaken natural but leave vaccine untouched. The theory why vaccine could be better long term than natural was that covid would be unable to mutate the spike much as it was so crucial to it. And the reduction for natural is just a side effect. Omicron sure does look like what vog was always worried about - a mutation specifically to avoid vaccine. So of course more of natural immunity should survive, still reduced as spike is part of natural, just not all. But natural antibodies recognize entire virus and omicron has fewer mutations outside of spike. So great fear that omicron might totally nullify vaccine immunity ( but it does not ). What omicron has is incredible number of mutations on spike protein, which is the only thing vaccine antibodies recognize ( they did not get to see anything else). Forget arguing which is better before omicron. There is zero reason to think omicron will reduce natural immunity more than vaccine immunity. The point I disagree is where you say that omicron can reinfect " easily " and can infect vaccinated once immunity wanes. As long as medical system does not totally break down, I am relatively happy. What you describe is the pessimistic non flattened curve, which does have an optimistic side, but the bad outweighs the good.Īnd I expect we will get closer to the bad result. Either we have a flattened curve with lower peak ( good) which then last longer and takes longer to fall ( bad) or vice versa. forget vaccine any one today will be too late to take effect for this wave - as I strongly advocate for today but is not going to happen, then cases will not drop as fast and the wave lasts longer. If we manage to " flatten the curve " by masking, restrictions, etc. If it goes up real fast and thus peaks at a very high number and infects such a high % of the USA ( 70%, 80%!), then it HAS to fall fast. It looks to me too that omicron will rise fast peak high and then fall very fast. I agree with pretty much all of what you said except maybe one little point. The statewide number is no longer way larger than the values for any given county. The vaccination numbers for PA have been straightened out-see CovidActNow. Home tests were everywhere before Thanksgiving-I should have bought extra then. Wearing masks still helps (indoors, and with some social distancing)-esp. This will probably the last day with numbers unaffected by the holiday season-expect them to bounce around a lot over Christmas and New Years. 75% of those being hospitalized are un-vaccinated. However, the un-vaccinated are still dominating the hospitalizations, i.e. In both cases, you can expect the immune system to respond and prevent very serious disease. It will also infect vaccinated once their immunity has waned. Note, omicron can only spread this fast because it easily re-infects people. Looks like when this wave hits an area, it will peak in two weeks to a month, then fall off a cliff. And numbers are still increasing in most areas. Numbers will vary a bit, but that translates into 0.5 to 1% of the population being infected every day. Overall, in the US, we're at 50 new cases per day per 100K. And that is just a fraction of the cases. >0.1% of the population per day is testing positive. Or at least get vaccinated if you're not already.Ĭases in NY over 100/100K, i.e. 23 thoughts on “ Afraid of Omicron? Get boosted!”
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